IMF Projects Greek Debt-to-GDP Ratio to Fall to 136% in 2026 and 111.1% by 2031

Macro/Political:

• The IMF projects that Greece’s gross debt-to-GDP ratio will decline further to 136% in 2026, from 146.6% in 2025, before falling to 128.7% in 2027 and 111.1% in 2031. The projections were published in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook database in connection with its annual meetings in Bangkok. It is also important to note that Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall below Italy’s this year and, by 2031, also below those of France, whose ratio is projected to reach 123.6%, and Belgium, whose ratio is projected at 122.1%. The decline in Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio will be supported mainly by primary surpluses, which are expected to gradually decrease but remain above 2% of GDP. The primary surplus is projected to reach 3.4% of GDP this year and 2.6% in 2027.
  Source: Capital.gr

• The turnover for the enterprises of the economy as a whole in August 2026 amounted to EUR 36.03bn recording an increase of 8.5% (y-o-y).
  Source: ELSTAT

• Minister of Energy Stavros Papastavrou and Deputy Minister of Finance Thanos Petralias yesterday announced that, from today until the end of the month, the government will introduce three direct fuel subsidies: EUR 0.20 per litre for heating oil, EUR 0.15 per litre for diesel and EUR 0.10 per litre for 95-octane petrol. According to their announcement, the total cost of the measures will amount to approximately EUR 46mn. Furthermore, the country’s refineries have also announced discounts, further reducing fuel prices. More specifically, heating oil will be discounted by EUR 0.20 per litre, bringing the total price reduction, including the government subsidy, to EUR 0.40 per litre. Diesel will be discounted by EUR 0.05 per litre, bringing the total benefit to EUR 0.20 per litre, while no discount will be applied to 95-octane petrol. In addition, the government announced a 30% increase in the heating allowance for the entire winter period, with an expected total fiscal cost of EUR 52mn. Papastavrou commented that supporting Greek households remains the government’s main priority, while Petralias noted that the EUR 0.40 per litre support for heating oil is among the highest, if not the highest, subsidies offered at the EU level.
  Source: Capital.gr

Markets:

• GEK TERNA announced the establishment of EMTN Programme, intended for qualified investors. The establishment of the EMTN Programme follows the Company’s inaugural investment grade ratings from S&P Global Ratings (BBB-) and Moody’s (Baa3) and makes use of the option available to investment-grade issuers in the European Union. Through the EMTN Programme, the Company will gain access to the Eurobond market, benefiting from the favourable opportunities this market offers to investment-grade issuers.
  Source: Euronext Athens

Macro/Political:

• Nexans submitted a request for a NAVTEX to the D1 Directorate of the Greek Foreign Ministry, seeking authorization for the research vessel VB Abeille Marengo to conduct surveys for the GSI. The French contractor’s move is considered very positive for the Cyprus-Crete cable, as this step could allow work to resume within weeks. Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis is expected to submit a recommendation to the Interministerial Committee for the Granting of Marine Research Permits, which will make the final licensing decision. The committee’s opinion is expected within 3–4 days from October 18 onward.
  It is important to note that Nexans has also held technical discussions with the Republic of Cyprus, while the preparatory steps taken by the French company over the past 10 days suggest that it is technically ready to resume surveys.
  Source: Kathimerini