Macro Political
• The annual progress report for 2025, regarding the targets set in the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan 2025–2028, has been submitted to the Council of the European Union and the European Commission, under the revised European economic governance framework effective since April 30, 2024. According to the report, the Greek economy is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2025. The primary budget surplus is expected to reach 3.2% of GDP (from 2.4 projected in the Budget), while the general government balance is forecast at a surplus of 0.1% of GDP (from a deficit of 0.6% of GDP projected in the Budget). The debt-to-GDP ratio, which stood at 163.9% in 2023, and 153.6% in 2024 is projected to decline 145.7% in 2025.
Source: Bloomberg
• The Overall Turnover Index in Retail Trade in February 2025 increased by 5.2% (y-o-y) and 5.7% (m-o-m). The Overall Volume Index in Retail Trade increased by 4.6% (y-o-y) and 6.2% (m-o-m).
Source: ELSTAT
• The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in March 2025 amounted to 9.0% compared to 10.8% in March 2024 (y-o-y) and 8.6% in February 2025.
Source: ELSTAT
Markets
• According to Fitch commentary, the improved credit profiles of Greek and Cypriot banks position them well to address challenges arising from evolving U.S. tariff policies and increased market volatility. Fitch noted that Greece and Cyprus have limited direct exposure to U.S. tariffs, however, second-round effects from a significant slowdown in the EU could dampen growth in both countries. Nevertheless, Greek and Cypriot banks are expected to maintain strong operating profits in 2025–2026, supported by continued lending, growth in fee-generating businesses, solid operating efficiency, and the completion of asset quality clean-ups.
Source: FITCH
