Ankara Revises Long-Standing Aegean Jurisdiction Claims Ahead of Erdogan-Mitsotakis Meeting

Macro/Political:

• Ankara has revised long-standing claims over jurisdiction in the Aegean Sea, prompting an exchange of competing navigational warnings between Greece and Turkey. The dispute emerged just two days before the leaders of the two countries were due to meet, and after Greece issued a Navtex for a planned military exercise in the eastern Aegean. Turkey responded by reiterating its claims over jurisdiction east of the 25^th meridian and objecting to Greece’s authority to issue such notices.
  Source: Kathimerini

Markets:

• According to Fitch, METLEN’s profit warning released last Friday is expected to result in 2025 leverage metrics exceeding the agency’s current rating sensitivities for the BB+ rating. This reflects execution challenges within the company’s project pipeline and places pressure on the current rating.
  At the same time, the company has reaffirmed its medium-term EBITDA guidance and highlighted the continued robust performance of its core activities in 2025.
  Fitch noted that it will closely monitor METLEN’s ability to restore execution discipline in project delivery, complete the remaining asset rotation transactions, and demonstrate more predictable earnings generation. Sustained cost overruns, further project delays, or aggressive debt-funded M&A could weaken visibility over medium-term deleveraging and potentially trigger a negative rating action. Conversely, successful remediation of execution issues and continued strong performance of the core business would support the current rating and Outlook, according to the agency.
  Source: Fitch Ratings

• UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel said during yesterday’s earnings call that he is open to acquiring Alpha Bank, but only if the potential target is supportive of such a move. According to Orcel, a takeover could build on the positive relationship that currently exists between the two banks; however, any transaction would only proceed if both sides feel it is in the best interests of their employees and shareholders.
  Orcel also noted that the partnership with Alpha Bank has been exceeding his expectations.
  Source: Bloomberg

Macro/Political:

• Provisional data released by CyStat showed that in the period of January – December 2025 the trade balance was in deficit of EUR 13,551.8 mn compared to a deficit of EUR 12,582.0 mn in the corresponding period of 2024. Total imports of goods in December amounted to EUR 1,204.4mn (-13.1% y-o-y) while total exports were EUR 490.5mn (+30.5% y-o-y).

  Source: CyStat