GREECE
Macro/Political:
- The trade balance in August 2026 presented a deficit of EUR 2,205.6mn compared to a deficit of EUR 2,128.7mn in August 2025, recording an increase of 3.6%. The total value of imports amounted to EUR 6,466.7mn (+17.7% y-o-y) while the total value of exports was EUR 4,261.1mn (+26.7% y-o-y). The deficit of the trade balance, for the 8-month period from January to August 2026 amounted to EUR 21,183.4 mn in comparison with EUR 22,017.2 mn for the corresponding period of the year 2025, recording a drop of 3.8%.
Source: ELSTAT
Markets:
- Fitch Ratings affirmed Credia Bank’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at BB, Short-Term IDR at B and Viability Rating at BB, while changing the Outlook to Positive. According to the agency, the Positive Outlook reflects its expectation that earnings generation in Greece will continue to improve as business volumes expand following the completion of the asset quality clean-up. Furthermore, the agency expects that the bank’s business profile will materially strengthen following the acquisition of HSBC Bank Malta. Fitch Ratings noted that it could revise the Outlook to Stable if Credia does not perform in line with the agency’s expectations, fails to successfully execute the acquisition of HSBC Malta, or fails to improve its operating profit/RWAs ratio above 2%, while maintaining stable asset quality metrics and a CET1 ratio of at least 14%. The ratings could be downgraded if the impaired loans ratio increases above 5% for a prolonged period or if the business profile weakens due to the bank’s inability to grow in Greece or heightened execution risks related to the acquisition of HSBC Malta. Furthermore, a sustained decline in operating profit to below 1% of RWAs or in the CET1 ratio below 12% could also result in a downgrade.
On the other hand, Fitch noted that an upgrade would require a strengthening of the bank’s business profile, including the successful integration of HSBC Malta and continued healthy growth and diversification of revenue in Greece. An upgrade would also require the operating profit/RWAs ratio to improve above 2% on a sustained basis, the CET1 ratio to remain at no less than 14%, and asset quality to remain stable.
Source: Fitch Ratings
- According to Forbes Greece GEK TERNA signed a strategic agreement for the development of industrial base for the X-BAT fighter jet. The agreement was signed in Athens from the Shield AI and GEK TERNA. The MoU, signed noted that Shield AI will lead the X-BAT programme and provide the aircraft’s autonomy software and missions system, and GEK TERNA will act as Shield AI’s strategic partner in Greece, managing and strengthening the Greek supplier base, which is expected to include SMEs participating in the programme. At the same-time, it will run the local X-BAT programme office.
Source: Forbes Greece
CYPRUS
Macro/Political:
- Preliminary data released by CyStat showed that the General Government fiscal balance for the period of January- August 2026 presented a surplus of EUR 1,589.1 mn (4.1% of GDP) compared to a surplus of EUR 1,269.3mn (3.5% of GDP) in the same period of 2025. Primary balance recorded a surplus of EUR 1,887.6 mn versus a surplus of EUR 1,561.6mn in the corresponding period of 2025. During Jan- Aug 2026 total expenditure increased by EUR 296mn (+3.3%) to EUR 9,252.9 mn from EUR 8,957.0 mn in the corresponding period of 2025. Total revenue increased by EUR 615.8mn (+6%) to EUR 10,842.0 mn compared to EUR 10,226.2mn in the same period of 2025. Particularly, in August 2026 the General government fiscal balance presented a surplus of EUR 730.6mn (Primary balance surplus EUR 733.2mn).
Source: CyStat
- Democratic Rally (DISY) leader Annita Demetriou has withdrawn from the contest for the party’s 2028 presidential nomination, according to reports from the party’s headquarters on Pindarou Street on Thursday, leaving Averof Neophytou and George Pamboridis to compete for the nomination. The announcement followed a meeting between Demetriou, Neophytou and Pamboridis at the party’s headquarters in Nicosia, which concluded on Wednesday afternoon. It is worth noting that, according to the latest internal poll, 48% of party members backed Demetriou, 36% backed Neophytou and 7% backed Pamboridis.
Source: Cyprus Mail
- The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) recorded a year-over-year increase of 0.28%. The further strengthening of the CCLEI in September 2026 primarily reflects the positive performance of some of its domestic components. Specifically, property sales contracts, credit card transactions by Cypriots, and the retail sales turnover volume index contributed positively to the Index’s year over-year growth rate. The year-over-year change in the weighted Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) was also positive, albeit limited. On the other hand, the significant rise in the price of Brent crude oil compared to September of the previous year, as well as the year-over-year decline in tourist arrivals and in the volume of electricity production (adjusted for temperature), limited any further strengthening of the CCLEI.
Overall, the further strengthening of the year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI in September points to an improvement in Cyprus’s short-term economic outlook.
Source: UCY
