EU Commission Autumn 2025 Forecast predicts strong economic growth for Greece and Cyprus

Macro/Political:

• According to the EU Commission’s Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast, Greece’s economy is expected to continue to grow at a strong pace, with a projected expansion of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, driven by steady consumption and investments supported by EU funds. The headline general government surplus is expected to decrease from 1.2% of GDP in 2024 to around 1.1% in 2025. The public debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 154.2% in 2024, 55 pps. below its peak in 2020. It is expected to decrease further, reaching 138% in 2027. The decline is set to be driven by nominal GDP growth as well as the primary budget surpluses.
  Source: EU Commission  

• Preliminary data released by the MoF showed that the State Budget balance on a modified cash basis for the period January – October 2025 presented a surplus of EUR 3,087mn, against a target of a surplus of EUR 212mn and a surplus of EUR 6,116mn in the same period of 2024. The State Budget Primary Balance amounted to a surplus of EUR 10,298mn, against the primary surplus target of EUR 7,192mn and a primary surplus of EUR 13,528mn in Jan – Oct 2024.
  Source: MoF

• Euronext NV has secured the minimum threshold required to acquire Hellenic Exchanges, according to people familiar with the matter.
  Source: Bloomberg

Markets:

• Metlen mandated BNP Paribas, Citigroup, HSBC and Morgan Stanley as Joint Global Coordinators to arrange on its behalf a series of fixed income investor calls for its upcoming 5.5Y senior unsecured bond offering.
  Source: Bloomberg

Macro/Political:

• According to the EU Commission’s Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast Cyprus’ growth is expected to remain robust in 2025 (3.4%), 2.6% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.  The General government budget is set to remain in surplus of 3.3% of GDP in 2025, 3% in 2026 and 3.2% 2027. Public debt is projected to fall to 45.7% of GDP by 2027.
  Source: EU Commission
  

• The arrivals of tourists reached 573,744 in October 2025 compared to 459,106 in October 2024, recording an increase of 17.1%. For the period of January – October 2025, arrivals of tourists totalled 4,142,534 compared to 3,727,196 in the corresponding period of 2024, recording an increase of 11.1%.
  Source: Cystat

• Labour Minister Yiannis Panayiotou stated that an increase in the minimum wage from January 2026 should be considered certain. Answering questions from journalists, Mr. Panayiotou said that in December a decree will be issued for the adjustment of the minimum wage, which will take effect from January 2026. A second decree for an additional revision will also be issued within 2027, to be implemented in 2028. He added that as long as the economy continues to perform positively, it is natural for those earning the minimum wage to benefit as well. Approximately 55,000 employees currently receive the minimum wage.
  Source: stockwatch.com.cy